Chilling prospects for a warming Arctic

Trump leaves Paris (Agreement) and sets his sights on Greenland – China and Russia flex muscles in the Arctic, as climate warming transforms the icy north. Business boom or global climate catastrophe?

“European land in the Arctic remains the fastest-warming region on Earth, and changes in atmospheric circulation are favouring more frequent summer heatwaves. Glaciers are melting (…)”  Those are findings from the Copernicus Global Climate Highlights Report 2024. It confirmed 2024 as the warmest year on record and the first to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the annual global average temperature.

The increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is now incompatible with IPCC pathways which would keep global warming below 1.5°C, a study by the UK Met Office finds. Many ice sheet scientists believe that exceeding 1.5°C will be sufficient to melt large parts of Greenland and West Antarctica, according to the 2024 State of the Cryosphere Report.

The Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced net-annual mass loss for 27 years running, for every year since 1998, says NOAA in its “Arctic Report Card” for 2024.  Covering the world’s largest island, the ice sheet contains the equivalent of 7.4 meters of global sea level rise. It is currently the second largest contributor to sea-level rise, after ocean water thermal expansion due to warming. The NOAA experts go on: “Ice sheet mass loss affects human and natural environments worldwide through coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, habitat loss, heightened storm surges, tidal flooding, and permanent inundation.”

Greenland in the headlines – for the wrong reasons

Against this background, when Arctic Greenland hits the headlines, it should be because of climate change, with huge impacts locally, regionally and globally to worry about.  It should be in connection with the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avert further potentially catastrophic melt of the largest ice body in the northern hemisphere

Instead, the ice island has been topping the news agenda because the incoming US-President Donald Trump reiterated his ambition to take over the island, which is currently an autonomous Danish-dependent territory working towards complete independence.

Last time round, we laughed this off. Now Trump is back, stronger than ever, and with the backing of a technology billionaire who controls mass communication platforms.

In spite of the wildfires raging in the USA, in spite of the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events worldwide, ranging from severe storms and floods to heatwaves and droughts, posing a significant risk to the livelihoods of people across the globe, the Arctic is in the focus not because of its key role in influencing the global climate, but as an object of political, military and economic ambition.  It is a key location with regard to international shipping routes linking Asia, America and Europe, as climate warming makes access easier. The Trump camp denies human-induced climate warming, especially any connections to fossil fuels, but is keen to take advantage of the ice melt it is already causing. The world’s biggest island also holds a wealth of natural resources, including rare earths and minerals, also becoming more accessible as the climate changes. The other key factor is defence and security.  Trump wants to control this strategic location in the power struggle with Russia. International power politics is pushing climate change off the agenda.

“Finding Solutions in Uncertain Times”

That was the theme of  the annual Arctic Futures Symposium organised by the International Polar Foundation in Brussels at the end of 2024. Solutions are hard to come by. “Uncertain times” seems almost like a euphemism. The discussion about the future of the Arctic was dominated by the geopolitical situation, with the shadow of conflict looming large.  Russia’s war on Ukraine and the resulting tensions with the West have turned the Arctic into a central factor in our geopolitical dynamics.

Russia has the largest landmass in the Arctic. In recent years, it has been increasing its military presence there. The Kola peninsula is home to Russia’s second-strike nuclear facilities and the northern fleet. Russia launches missiles from the Arctic to Ukraine.

The days of peaceful cooperation between east and west in the High North appear to be gone for the moment. Finland and Sweden are now in NATO, which is building up its presence in the region. The two countries are preparing their populations for increased aggression from Russia.

“Not all Nato allies have the capabilities that are needed and that work in the Arctic environment and climate.” @alanderminna.bsky.social explains that “it has very specific sort of requirements on simple things when it’s very cold.”

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— Center for European Policy Analysis (@cepa.org) 6 January 2025 at 22:00

This aggression no longer has to be of a purely military nature. Author and International Strategic Advisor Anita Parlow is an expert on “hybrid” forms of warfare. These include disinformation campaigns, cyber-attacks or sabotage such as the destruction of undersea cables, like recent incidents in the Baltic. Hybrid activities such as digital disruption can destabilize our societies. One key problem with hybrid warfare is that we don’t recognize it as such until a very late stage. When do actions become part of “hybrid warfare”? And traditional military means cannot guarantee security against them.

At the Brussels Arctic Futures gathering, Parlow referred to “Russia’s hybrid attacks against the US and NATO nations”, which she says are “nation-specific— with its hybrid war focused on specific national gaps or vulnerabilities”. Against that background, she said “each of the NATO nations must assess their own gaps, vulnerabilities, including their levels of mistrust amongst the allies, to more effectively anticipate, respond, and prevent hybrid war.”

So far, she maintains, Finland and Norway have demonstrated the “soundest and most effective responses to a variety of Russia’s attacks.

China in the High North

China has become a key player in the struggle to control the Arctic and reap what are seen as the economic advantages of a warming North. Bergdis Ellertsdottir is Iceland’s Senior Arctic Official. She told the Brussels gathering her government had supported China being granted observer status at the Arctic Council in 2013. It seemed like a good idea to have them on board, which involves their accepting international law for the area, she says. But China has changed considerably in the last 10 years, Ellertsdottir believes. Iceland was keen to sign trade agreements and welcome Chinese involvement in the region for a time. “Now we need to be more cautious”, she says.

The western nations are wary of increasing cooperation between China and Russia in the Arctic, including joint coastguard and military exercises.

Arctic resources “up for grabs”?

In addition to its strategic geopolitical location, climate change is opening the Arctic to increased economic activity. Everybody wants a piece of the pie. Arctic shipping, mining, tourism are all expanding. The new US administration’s intention to revive and expand oil and gas exploration and use will also have implications for the High North. Fish stocks are changing. Indigenous peoples and other Arctic residents face major changes to their living conditions and livelihoods.

The hunt for rare earths and minerals for the green energy transition, the need for wind energy, all mean increased competition when it comes to land use. Sami reindeer herders, traditional fishers and other communities are frequently pitted against mining and windpower concerns. Indigenous representatives, including Greenland politician and now International Chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Council (ICC) Sara Olsvig, warn of repeating the mistakes of the past with the danger of “colonization” in the energy transition. This takes on a whole new dimension when the President of the USA sets his sights on Greenland.

The Arctic Council – 7 against 1?

All this brings a new challenge to Arctic governance. 7 of the 8 members of the Arctic Council are now in NATO. The other, with more than half the territory, is Russia, suspended since its war on Ukraine. President Trump’s expansionist politics, with designs on Canada and Greenland will not make for easier relations inside the key body, which has worked for so long to keep the Arctic peaceful.

With climate change impacting the Arctic so massively, this should be a time for enhanced cooperation between Arctic nations, said Mike Sfraga, the US Ambassador-at-Large for Arctic Affairs in Brussels in November.

The Future of Climate Action

So what are the prospects for international action to reduce emissions and slow down further ice melt to avoid catastrophic consequences both for the people who live in the Arctic and others affected by sea level rise and increasing extreme weather around the globe?

President Trump made it one of his first priorities to take the USA – the world’s second-biggest emitter – out of the UN’s Paris Agreement once more. This will only take effect next year, meaning the US team could still disrupt this year’s negotiations.

It remains to be seen what impact the USA’s departure will have and whether others will follow suit.

The UN COP meetings are problematic in their own right. COP29, in oil and gas-rich Azerbaijan, was a non-event. Some would say there were even some steps backwards in the negotiations. Some experts suggest the COP format is no longer fit for purpose. The annual meetings have grown out of proportion, become unwieldy, and allow countries like oil giant Saudi Arabia to block general progress. One group is proposing that this year’s meeting, to be held in Belem, Brazil in November, should already be decentralised and scaled down.

Yet there are hopes that this year’s COP could in some ways be a game-changer, the “implementation COP”. Brazil’s climate policy has changed under President Lula da Silva, who is keen to fight climate change.  Amazon deforestation is being reduced, and the country is a member of the influential BRICS group, which also includes key players China and India.

When reality overtakes the forecasts…

It is impossible to overstate the trouble we are in. An assessment published by some of the world’s leading climate scientists in October 2024 concluded:

“We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis. “

Despite numerous warnings, we are still moving in the wrong direction, with fossil fuel emissions at an all-time high and current policies on track for approximately 2.7 degrees Celsius (°C) peak warming by 2100.

We have already failed to avoid many serious impacts of climate change. The need for adaptation is rapidly overtaking the speed of mitigation. We are already at a point where we can only try to limit the extent of the damage:

“We are witnessing the grim reality of the forecasts as climate impacts escalate, bringing forth scenes of unprecedented disasters around the world and human and nonhuman suffering. We find ourselves amid an abrupt climate upheaval, a dire situation never before encountered in the annals of human existence. We have now brought the planet into climatic conditions never witnessed by us or our prehistoric relatives within our genus, Homo”.

Sounds like a Doomsday scenario? Sadly, I fear it is not exaggerated.

In search of good news

It is not easy to avoid resignation. But some things are moving in the right direction. For good news, we have to look beyond governments and international climate diplomacy. Things are happening at sub-national levels, and businesses are discovering that clean, low-carbon technologies can be profitable.

In his selection of “Climate news to watch in 2025”, Dana Nuticelli notes the record deployment of clean technology solutions in 2024, which prevented emissions from rising even higher. The level of global deforestation due directly to human activities in places like the Brazilian Amazon is declining, fewer organizations are investing in fossil fuel company stocks, and more countries are charging a price for the climate-warming emissions from an increasing number of economic sectors, he adds.

And while climate pollution caused by burning fossil fuels reached record levels, surpassing 37 billion metric tons while pushing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to a new height of 422.5 parts per million, those emissions increased by less than 1% compared to the previous year. That’s due to a record deployment of clean technologies around the world, Nuticelli explains.

Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids accounted for over 20% of new car sales globally in 2024, up from 18% last year. In China, half of new car sales were electric over the past five months, and adoption is growing fast. Solar panel deployments also continued to set records globally, and especially in China, in large part because in most cases they’ve simply become cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives.

The power of the market

Now Donald Trump wants to take the world back to the age of oil and gas, to increase exploration – including in the Arctic – and put pressure on other countries to buy these fossil fuels. The next few years will show whether the advances already being made towards cleaner renewable energies are established to an extent where going back would mean economic losses. The power of the market could ultimately beat Trump at his own game.

“The future is in our hands – swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate,” said Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, as it presented its latest data.

For the Arctic in particular, NOAA makes the situation clear in its Report Card:

“The rapid pace and complexity of Arctic change demand new and strengthened Arctic adaptation and global reductions of fossil fuel pollution”.

Threat from the right

At the same time, climate denial appears to be gaining ground, propagated by right-wing political groups, in many parts of the world, including here in my home country Germany.  Billionaires like Elon Musk are spreading misinformation on the social media they control and supporting parties like Germany’s extreme right-wing “Alternative für Deutschland” (AFD). There is a backlash against climate action. We have to break the right-wing narrative that climate change is not happening and that the clean energy transition is an expensive luxury ordinary folk can’t afford. Can other political parties reverse the trend and show the win-win-nature of a greener, cleaner energy system and a low-carbon lifestyle?

The devastating forest fires in California show the impacts of climate change – and how feedback effects can reinforce it. Climate change has the potential to be the biggest disaster to hit the planet. If we take our eyes off the ball and pause climate action, any would-be advantages from faster shipping routes or new access to natural resources beneath the ice are likely to go up in smoke.

Irene Quaile has been writing about the Arctic since 2007. During a trip to the Alaskan Arctic in 2008, she created The Ice Blog. You can read her articles by clicking on this link.

Previous posts include:

“Ground zero”: Why the warming Arctic must top the global agenda

Scorching heat, melting ice, forests ablaze: Why the Arctic needs Azerbaijan