AEC executive director’s 2025 predictions—the stakes couldn’t be higher
My predictions for 2025
“Victory awaits him, who has everything in order – luck we call it. Defeat is definitely due for him, who has neglected to take the necessary precautions – bad luck we call it.”
These words from the legendary Norwegian polar explorer Roald Amundsen resonate just as profoundly today as they did a century ago. They remind us that the future belongs not to those who gamble on hope alone, but to those who prepare diligently. Whether you’re traversing icy tundras, running a business, or crafting policy, the principle remains the same: the difference between good luck and bad often lies in foresight.
And yet, predictions are tricky. Crystal balls are notoriously murky, especially in this age of volatility, where “unforeseen events” have practically become a regular feature of our lives. Nevertheless, I offer five predictions for 2025—along with suggestions to ensure that we, like Amundsen, have “everything in order.”
Elections, Ambassadors, and the Art of Polarization
The political winds in 2025 will blow cold and turbulent, with elections in Greenland, Norway, and Canada. Recent trends suggest a tilt to the right, but the deeper concern lies in the fault lines of polarization, populism, and the “post-truth” politics that have eroded trust in governance. These elections may bring more disruption than vision, leaving Arctic policy—already a delicate balancing act—adrift.
Meanwhile, diplomatic reshuffling will dominate the Arctic stage. Canada has announced they will appoint an Arctic ambassador and open consulates in Anchorage and Nuuk that will mark a step forward in asserting presence. Norway, too, is likely to appoint a new ambassador after their chairmanship ends, and speculation swirls around the possibility of the first-ever Arctic Ambassador from Greenland under the Kingdom of Denmark’s chairmanship. These transitions present an opportunity for fresh thinking—if the diplomats can rise above the noise, symbolic politics and internal infightings.
As for the United States, a new president in early 2025 will almost certainly mean shifts in Arctic priorities. Drawing from the Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025,” expect renewed debates over Arctic energy, with climate policy caught in the crossfire. Will it be a return to denialism or a grudging acknowledgment of the existential crisis? Either way, the Arctic Council, set to transition from Norway to the Kingdom of Denmark’s leadership, will feel the ripple effects.
Observers: The World Comes North
The Arctic, once the quiet domain of eight nations, increasingly finds itself a global affair. In 2025, the UAE might establish a physical presence in the Arctic as they have stated, while Italy and India host Arctic conferences, underscoring the growing interest from non-Arctic states. This global attention, while welcome, risks diluting focus on Arctic peoples as Antarctica’s narrative gets mistakenly mixed into Arctic discourse.
Russia, meanwhile, will deepen its collaborations with China and India on the Northern Sea Route, though sanctions and energy politics may slow progress. A modest uptick in Arctic shipping is likely, but transformative change remains elusive. The EU, true to form, will inch forward with layers of bureaucracy, particularly around youth engagement and critical raw materials (CRMs). My Christmas wish? That Brussels heeds the Draghi report’s call for competitiveness and innovation.
CRMs and Infrastructure: The Arctic as a Strategic Asset
Critical raw materials will dominate the economic agenda, as the specter of trade wars looms large. China’s recent restrictions on exports and stockpiling of resources are just the beginning. The Arctic’s untapped potential in CRMs could attract investment—if local communities are prepared and engaged.
Security concerns will also drive investments in critical infrastructure, particularly in defense. The challenge will be ensuring these projects benefit Arctic communities rather than bypassing them. The Arctic Economic Council has already laid groundwork with reports on food security, investment opportunities, and CRM mapping. These tools will be vital as the region navigates a geopolitically charged future.
Collaboration in a Fractured World
Despite geopolitical tensions, some collaborations will endure. Norway and the Faroe Islands are likely to maintain fishery agreements with Russia. The Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement (CAOFA), involving players like the EU, Russia, US, China, and Korea, will continue on a diplomatic track.
But the Arctic Council faces rough seas. Under the Kingdom of Denmark’s chairmanship, there’s hope for progress on climate research, but the Council risks becoming a battleground for extraneous disputes. Visionary leadership could steer it back on course, but the odds are long.
The Only Certainty: Climate Change
One prediction requires no caveat: climate change will relentlessly redefine the Arctic. Record temperatures, wildfires, thawing permafrost, and storms will escalate in 2025, testing the resilience of both Arctic communities and global systems.
Progress toward renewable energy is a glimmer of hope. Greenland’s Nunagreen hydro project exemplifies what’s possible when ambition meets action. But not every nation will follow suit. Some will balk at the electoral cost of challenging entrenched interests, delaying the transition to a greener Arctic.
What I Know
While predictions are fraught, one thing is certain: the Arctic Economic Council will remain steadfast. Our commitment to sustainable economic development, global partnerships, and thriving communities is not a forecast but a promise.
Roald Amundsen’s wisdom reminds us that the future isn’t left to chance. It belongs to those who prepare. In the Arctic, where the stakes couldn’t be higher, we have no choice but to heed his advice.
