Alaska demographers predict population drop, a switch from prior forecasts

Alaska’s population is set to significantly decline by 2050, according to a new forecast from the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

The department publishes population forecasts every two years, and the new document estimates the state will drop by nearly 2% before 2050.

The prediction, which reverses decades of optimistic forecasts by the department, is based upon more than a decade of outmigration, rising death rates and falling birth rates.

The state’s forecast is critical for urban planners and others who need to calculate demand for schools, transportation, utilities and commerce.

State Demographer David Howell said the department bases its forecast on a 30-year average and extends current trends into the future. That results in the state’s population falling from 736,812 to 722,806 residents by 2050.

“We’ve now had 11 straight years of negative net migration, and it’s just pushed that 30-year average down enough that our natural increase, which is just births minus deaths, can’t make up for the losses in net migration once we get about 10 years out in the projected period,” he said.

Younger Americans tend to be more mobile and are more likely to be the people who move into the state. With fewer people moving into the state, the state’s average age is rising, which means fewer new births.

By the mid-2030s, “our Baby Boomer population is really starting to hit these older ages, and so we’re seeing not only births declining, but also deaths increasing. So those two things come together, which ends up leading to population losses,” Howell said.

For at least two and a half decades, the department has expected Alaska’s population to grow significantly.

In 1998, for example, the Department of Labor expected the state would have more than 843,000 residents by 2018. In reality, the figure was 738,300 that year.

The department’s forecasts have grown more pessimistic with each new forecast since 2007, and this year’s is the first to predict a long-term decline.

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