ASC24: The risk of conflict spillover looms in the Arctic, as hybrid threats grow

As global tensions escalate, experts are raising concerns about the potential for conflict to spill over into the Arctic, a region traditionally known for stability. The Arctic, increasingly affected by climate change and geopolitical shifts, is now at the center of a growing power struggle involving Russia, China, and NATO allies.

At the second day of the Arctic Security Conference 2024 (ASC24) in Oslo, Norway, a panel titled Arctic Operations: The defense and security perspective, which consisted of Anne Marie Aanerud, Norway’s State Secretary at the Ministry of Defence and Iris Ferguson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Arctic and Global Resilience at the U.S. Department of Defence, discussed the vulnerabilities and evolving threats facing the region.

“The international security situation is more unstable, unpredictable, and dangerous than it has been for a very long time. This is also felt in the Arctic,” warned moderator Kate Hansen Bundt, who is the Secretary General of the Norwegian Atlantic Committee, during the panel.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has had a profound impact, with Russia’s actions in Eastern Europe now resonating in the High North. Russia, a dominant Arctic power, is increasingly reliant on its Northern Fleet as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. The strategic Kola Peninsula, which is home to significant Russian nuclear capabilities, sits precariously close to NATO borders, exacerbating security concerns for neighboring countries like Norway.

“Russia is now more dependent on its northern fleet because its Black Sea fleet is locked in, and access to the Atlantic through the Baltic Sea is more difficult,” noted Aanerud.

Aanerud underscored that while the Arctic remains stable, the war in Ukraine has shifted the broader security landscape.

“Russia’s war in Ukraine has profoundly affected the security situation in the High North. Even though the security situation is still stable, we can see dark skies on the horizon,” she said.

The Arctic’s rapidly changing climate is also reshaping the region’s security environment. Melting ice is making the region more accessible, not only for commercial interests, but also for military operations. This new reality has intensified great power competition in the region, especially between NATO countries, Russia, and an increasingly interested China. The nation’s activities in the Arctic, while not as direct as Russia’s, are becoming more prominent.

“We see China wanting to be more present in the Arctic, but it doesn’t play the same kind of role as Russia does for now,” explained Aanerud. “China’s increased interest is linked to its global ambitions, while Russia sees the Arctic as a critical part of its national defense and energy strategy.”

Ferguson, echoed these concerns from a U.S. perspective.

“We continue to monitor Russia’s activities and the increasing alignment between China and Russia,” she said. “The joint exercises we’ve seen, particularly around Alaska, signal growing cooperation between the two, which is something we need to remain vigilant about.”

A Fragile Peace

While the consensus remains that the Arctic is unlikely to be the origin of a major conflict, the risk of spillover is ever-present.

“Most experts agree that a conflict will not start in the High North, but spillovers and miscalculations in a much more tensioned world are very real possibilities,” said Bundt.

The risk of miscommunication between Russia and NATO allies is heightened by the diminishing channels for dialogue. With relations between the two blocks at their worst since the Cold War, cooperation in the Arctic has diminished greatly. However, some essential military lines of communication, particularly between Norway and Russia, remain open, ensuring cooperation in areas like search and rescue and border control.

“We don’t really talk on a political level anymore,” Aanerud admitted. “We have to signal to Russia that we intend to protect this area, as we will protect any land area in Europe,” she said.

Hybrid Threats on the Rise

In addition to traditional military threats, hybrid tactics such as cyberattacks, GPS jamming, and strategic land acquisitions are becoming more prominent in the Arctic. Both Russia and China are increasingly turning to these methods to exert influence without direct confrontation. These activities are difficult to combat because they operate in a legal and economic gray zone, making it harder for governments to respond decisively.

“There is an increased activity of GPS jamming and cyberattacks in our High North,” Bundt said. “We’ve seen Chinese actors attempt to purchase property in strategic areas, including Svalbard.”

Aanerud emphasized the need for vigilance and to actively monitor China’s increasing involvement in the Arctic.

“We need to be aware of the long-term consequences of China’s intentions, particularly in the High North, where it is increasing its presence alongside a deepening partnership with Russia.”

As the Arctic becomes more accessible due to climate change and geopolitical shifts, the region’s security situation is growing more precarious. While outright conflict may not be imminent, the region is increasingly a stage for hybrid threats and a potential arena for power struggles spilling over from other parts of the world.

“We need to be ever-communicating,” Ferguson concluded, “because these overtures from Russia and China are not going away.”