ASC24: Climate change and China are Arctic challenges

On Thursday, the Arctic Security Conference 2024 (ASC24) opened in Oslo, Norway and during the two day event experts from around the world will discuss topics related to the rising security tensions in the Arctic. As military activity in the region grows and geopolitical dynamics shift following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the conference aims to foster a nuanced, research-driven dialogue on the security challenges and opportunities in the Arctic. Organized by leading institutions, the event will feature panels on topics like Arctic governance, cooperation and defense strategy.

The conference opened with a panel titled “Setting the Stage: Arctic security and geopolitics at large”, where experts from five Arctic nations came together to discuss the growing geopolitical importance of the region and its complex and evolving security dynamics influenced by climate change and outside interest.

Espen Barth Eide, the Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs emphasized the alarming rate at which the Arctic is warming, explaining that this is rapidly altering the landscape and opening new avenues for conflict.

“The speed of warming is much faster in the Arctic—four to five times that of the global average. The interrelationship between climate and security in the Arctic will be more and more evident because with this, of course, the ice melts and new areas become accessible,” he said during the panel discussion. “New transport routes become accessible. But we will also see new disputes about fishing rights and so on.”

Increasingly the world is taking note of what is happening in the Arctic, as nations look to the region to understand and research climate change and private and public actors want to cash in on emerging economic opportunities.

“What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic,” Eide said. “When we see countries from very far away places taking an interest, it’s because they understand the physiological role of the Arctic as the refrigerator of the planet, and that role is being lost.”

The China challenge

One of the nations that is keen to increase its presence in the Arctic is China and the specter of the Asian superpower looms large over all debates about regional security.

“China does have an interest in the Arctic. What we can do is make sure that the cooperation happens on our terms,” said Eide. “The argument I used then, which I think remains valid, is that it’s much better that they are part of our club than that they form another club.”

Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the country has become increasingly dependant on Chinese economic support and trade. Pasi Rajala, the State Secretary of Finland, claimed the special relationship between the two nations was increasingly placing Russia at the mercy of Beijing. Rajala expressed concerns that China’s influence on Russia, particularly in business and technology, is enabling Russia to continue its activities in Ukraine.

“Russia and China have been building their ties over many, many years,” said Rajala. “It would be false to say that Russia is completely in China’s pocket, but it’s getting there. It’s getting there fast.”

U.S. lawmakers have long considered China to be their main geopolitical rival and during the recent presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the two accused each other of being weak

Mike Sfraga, the Chair of US Arctic Research Commission & Chair, Polar Institute of the Wilson Center, echoed the unease in Washington regarding China’s intentions for the Arctic. He pointed out that China’s partnership with Russia in the region is particularly noteworthy. Sfraga mentioned naval operations between China and Russia in the Arctic, as well as China’s economic interests, particularly in trade and energy. He expressed concern over how this partnership could impact security and environmental stability in the region.

“We have Russia in the Arctic, we have China in the Arctic, and we have Russia and China in the Arctic,” he said. “This is a very active, emerging dynamic happening.”We’ve seen naval operations coordinated between the Russian Federation and China off the coast of Alaska. A number of naval flotillas—China and Russia naval vessels in coordination in training in the Bering Sea, the Bering Strait.”

As sanctions close off markets in the West, Russia is increasingly trying to find ways to ship its goods to China and this has meant increased Arctic shipping, most notably through the Northern Sea Route. Sfraga expressed concerns about the environmental risks posed by the transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia through Arctic waters, highlighting the potential for accidents. He specifically pointed to the trade relationship between Russia and China, which facilitates the movement of tankers through the Bering Strait.

“If there’s a spill in that region, it will devastate both sides of the Bering Strait, and perhaps go in places that we just don’t know how to clean up a spill on ice yet,” he said. “I think about the environmental impacts, but that’s trade emerging and growing to a large degree because of the relationship between China and Russia.”

The Arctic Security Conference will continue Friday, September 13.