Day 1 of the Arctic Circle, contradictions take to the main stage

The 12th annual Arctic Circle (AC) Conference kicked off Thursday, October 17 in Reykjavík, Iceland. It has long been the premier event on the busy Arctic conference calendar, attracting experts and laypeople from all over the world to discuss the environment, defense, science, business, and everything else that can in some way be connected to the vast, melting region.

From its inception, the Arctic Circle has been held in the lavish halls of the Harpa concert and conference hall by the old harbor in the Icelandic capital. The facade was designed by famed Icelandic-Danish artist Ólafur Elíasson (which nationality should precede the hyphen remains a point of debate) and is inspired by Iceland’s icy nature.

I have a hard time finding the media room, which has been moved since last year, ostensibly to make way for a stage that will host famed cellist Yo-Yo Ma, who I hear will be performing in an outfit designed by Icelandic company 66 North. This year, instead of the windowless quiet of previous ACs, we in the media are placed in an open area next to the main stage. Somebody forgot to include power outlets, very unfortunate for people like myself who forget to charge their laptops.

Right next to the media room is a tiny stage called Speakers Corner, where a talk is being given in Icelandic titled “The Vestfjord Economic Adventure” about the booming economy of the place of my birth, the Vestfjords. After a century of people and money leaving for greener pastures in the south, things have started to turn around. Last year was the first time in decades that the population of the region hadn’t decreased. Much of the growth is due to Iceland’s first startup unicorn, Kerecis, which last year was sold for USD 1.3 billion. Almost as if by magic, suddenly the isolated town of Ísafjörður gained dozens of millionaires.

It can be claimed that the Vestfjords are the most Arctic-esque part of Iceland—isolated, sparsely populated, and until recently often forgotten. The talk focuses a lot on the need for better transportation infrastructure, vital to continued growth in all parts of the Arctic.

As I walk around, taking in the atmosphere, I happen across the booth of the University of Greenland, which stands unattended. While loitering, two women approach the booth. I can hear they are speaking Danish, and as they come closer, I can see that their badges say “University of Copenhagen.”

“Oh, look, here are the Greenlanders,” one says in Danish. “We know them,” the other responds. With the Greenlanders absent, the Danes peruse the wares on offer. “Need some crisp Arctic Air?” the second woman exclaims, reading the slogan of complimentary Greenlandic mints. They grab mints and post-it notes before walking away, with the Greenlanders none the wiser.

For years, Greenland has arguably been the most exciting part of the Arctic. With its untapped mineral and energy wealth and potential to become a hot tourist destination, its economic potential is unrivaled. In the garish ballroom of the Edition Hotel, a session is taking place titled ‘Business in Greenland: The Future’. Jacob Nitter Sørensen, the CEO of Air Greenland, is talking about the future growth of tourism in his country.

I notice that Guðmundur Kristjánsson, the CEO of the fisheries company Brim Seafood and one of Iceland’s richest men, is sitting a few meters away from me. He doesn’t seem interested in the talk, as he sits head bowed and his attention fixed firmly on his phone. Suddenly, as if by design, the moderator grabs the phrase “Greenland is open for business” from the mouth of Sørensen and turns to Kristjánsson.

“You say Greenland is open for business, yet foreign investors like Guðmundur Kristjánsson have been told they need to leave Greenland,” the moderator says, as an AC volunteer hands him a microphone. He no longer looks bored.

“We have invested millions of Euros in Greenland, and now the government has said that all foreign investors need to leave within 10 years. How can you say that Greenland is open for business if this is the reality facing those of us who have invested in the country?” Kristjánsson asks.

Sørensen admits that it is unfortunate but claims that it is important that wealth created in Greenland stays in Greenland. “This is also something that has been known for a long time,” he says.

“Well, then you know more than your own government, because I have spoken to many ministers over the years and nobody told me anything,” Kristjánsson shoots back. It’s an interesting exchange, given that Kristjánsson is not part of the program and no other audience questions are posed. As soon as he is finished, he’s out the door, point made.

Following his talk, I catch Sørensen by the coffee table and ask him whether stakeholders in Greenland have been looking at Iceland’s experience with its own tourism boom. Like Iceland, Greenland’s native population would be insufficient to supply a workforce for such a labor-intensive industry as tourism and would need to look abroad for workers. In the past ten years, the foreign-born population of Iceland has shot up, and today 80,000 foreign citizens live in the country—the highest in the OECD. This has helped push the local housing market to its limits as demand far outstrips supply.

“We have looked at Iceland’s experience, and already a middle-class family in Nuuk is unable to afford a home,” Sørensen says. “The politicians talk a lot about doing something to address the situation, but nothing gets done.” After a short chat about the potential pitfalls of mass tourism, he excuses himself; he needs to go sign a cooperation agreement with Icelandair CEO Bogi Nils Bogason.

Year-on-year, it feels like the presence of non-Arctic states is increasing at the AC, and as I walk into Harpa, I notice a large poster displaying prominent partners, including the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Climate Change and Environment. Countries located far away from the 66th parallel are featured heavily at the Opening Session, which is about to begin on the main stage.

As per tradition, the opening remarks are made by Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, the former President of Iceland and the Chairman and one of the key founders of the Arctic Circle Assembly. He welcomes us to “one of the main democratic gatherings” in the world. It’s all rather boilerplate.

Following Grímsson is outgoing Icelandic Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson. Last Sunday, he surprised everyone by announcing that he was disbanding his coalition government of seven years; this will therefore likely be his last international duty as PM.

Later in the day, the coalition of the Left Greens, Independence Party, and the Progressive Party will conduct their last bit of business together: a short memorial service at the President’s residence in honor of their years together. Tomorrow, because the Left Greens refused to serve in his placeholder government, Benediktsson will add the ministries of Social Affairs and the Labor Market, and the Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Fisheries to his ministerial duties until the November 30 elections.

“Let us face the facts: Russia will probably not change its course in the near future,” Benediktsson says, as he speaks about “our friends in Ukraine.” He places great emphasis on increased meddling by non-democratic states in Arctic affairs and how they are threatening stability in the region. As soon as the applause ends following his speech, a flashy video titled China: Climate Vision for the Arctic starts showing a well-lit Beijing skyline.

The slick video is followed by a speech by the People’s Republic’s Special Envoy for Climate Change, Liu Zhenmin. “China has always adhered to the principles of respect and sustainability,” he says about China’s Arctic interests. “China actively promotes peace and stability in the Arctic.”

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the two Asian powers have been deepening their ties, with China purchasing discount oil in exchange for sanctioned goods. Increasingly, large tankers and freighters are making the hazardous trip through the Northern Sea Route, as Russia seeks to replace its closed-off European markets.

“Non-Arctic states need to pitch in,” Zhenmin concludes.

Last year, Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski claimed that the U.S. was beginning to understand that it was an Arctic nation. Then she struck a rather defiant tone, talking up Washington’s growing commitment to the Arctic. Today she exclaims, “The U.S. has icebreaker envy.” Freudian connotations aside, there is truth in that statement. Russia, and more recently China, are building up their fleets, while the U.S. owns just the USCGC Polar Star and Healy. Fourteen years ago, the High Latitude Mission Analysis Report identified a need for at least six new polar icebreakers; since then, none have been built, and the recent ICE Pact between Canada, Finland, and the U.S. remains moored in committee for now.

Like Benediktsson, Murkowski spends a significant amount of time talking about Russian belligerence and “near-Arctic states” asserting their presence in the Arctic.

“Russia and China are conducting exercises in the Arctic, and eleven times we have intercepted Russian intrusions into Alaskan airspace this year,” she says.

Following her talk, she introduces the recently appointed U.S. Ambassador-at-large for Arctic Affairs, Mike Sfraga, who is joined by Grímsson for a panel discussion.

The U.S. might be suffering from icebreaker envy, but it seems Murkowski is suffering from Republican guilt, as she laughingly rejects Grímsson’s comment that she represents the Republican Party. “In most things, no,” she says.

We are only three weeks out from the next U.S. presidential election, and the specter of a potential second Trump term looms large. The first time around, Trump threatened to pull out of alliances; it’s anyone’s guess what he’d do a second time around. Murkowski tries to alleviate any fears attending diplomats might have.

“I’d like to suggest that not all is dependent on the occupant in the White House,” Murkowski says. “We in Congress have a role, and we need to assert our authority.”

Next up is Greenland’s Minister for Statehood and Foreign Affairs, Vivian Motzfeldt. I use the occasion to try the mint I, along with the Danes, had plundered from the unattended booth earlier in the day. Next year, Denmark will take over chairmanship of the Arctic Council, and, rather reasonably, Motzfeldt suggests that the “Arctic Council should be led from the Arctic.” There is a future for Greenland without Denmark, and she suggests that there should be more trade with their western neighbors. It is possible that Greenland will distance itself from the Kingdom and grow stronger ties with its superpower neighbor that only five years ago threatened to purchase them wholesale.

Following Motzfeldt, there are back-to-back speeches by non-Arctic actors—India, Italy, UNESCO, and French President Emmanuel Macron speaking via video—before Icelandic President Halla Tómasdóttir closes out the opening session.

As panels and speeches are replaced by receptions and champagne, there is an inescapable sense of contradictions on the first day of the 13th annual Arctic Circle Conference. Russia may remain mired in its banishment, but its most vital ally occupies prime real estate, sandwiched between two western political leaders bemoaning the rising influence of non-Arctic, non-democratic actors in the region. However, what is not disputed is that the world’s most powerful nations keep casting a wistful gaze at the Arctic and its untapped potential.