Iceland prepares for a political shake-up Saturday as snap elections loom

By Elías Thorsson November 27, 2024
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Iceland’s Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson’s conservative Independence Party is set to lose big in the November 30 elections. REUTERS/Hollie Adams

Iceland is bracing for a seismic shift as the nation approaches its snap parliamentary elections on November 30, 2024. With the collapse of the coalition government earlier this year, the upcoming elections mark a pivotal moment in the country’s political narrative. The outgoing coalition—an unlikely alliance between the conservative Independence Party, the environmentally focused Left-Green Movement, and the centrist Progressive Party—was often described as a marriage of convenience rather than ideological alignment.

The coalition government, formed in 2017 by the Independence Party, the Left-Green Movement, and the Progressive Party, dissolved in October 2024 due to escalating internal conflicts and declining public support. Initially, this alliance was seen as a stabilizing force after a period of political volatility. However, over time, ideological differences became more pronounced, particularly concerning foreign policy, asylum seekers, and energy issues. These disagreements led to significant internal disputes, culminating in Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson’s announcement on October 13, 2024, that the government would be dissolved.

A poll by pollster Maskína released on November 21, indicates that the electorate is out to punish the coalition government. The Social Democratic Alliance (Samfylkingin) leads with 22.7% support, marking a substantial increase from their 9.93% share in the 2021 elections. The Reform Party (Viðreisn) follows closely at 20.9%, up from 8.33% in 2021. The Independence Party (Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn) has seen a decline, currently at 14.6%, down from their previous 24.39%. The Centre Party (Miðflokkurinn) holds 12.6%, an increase from 5.45% in 2021. The People’s Party’s (Flokkur fólksins) support remains unchanged from 2021 at 8.8%. The Progressive Party (Framsóknarflokkurinn) is at 5.9%, down from 17.27%, while The Socialist Party (Sósíalistaflokkurinn) has 5.0% support.

Three parties are set to miss out on the 5% benchmark needed to enter parliament: The Pirate Party (Píratar) with 4.3%, down from 8.63%. The former coalition government party the Left-Green Movement (Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð) is at 3.1% from 12.57% and the newly formed Democratic Party (Lýðræðisflokkurinn) holds 1.6%.

Social Democratic leader Kristrún Frostadóttir or Reform Party leader Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir are in pole position to become Iceland’s next PM. (Samfylkingin, Viðreisn)