Icelandic support for EU membership increases as alliances become unreliable

Support for Iceland joining the European Union appears to be on the rise, with 44.3% of Icelanders now in favor of EU membership, according to a new Gallup poll conducted in March. That compares to 35.6% opposed, with the remainder neutral or undecided.

While the country remains far from political consensus on the issue, the numbers reflect a shift in mood—one that seems is tied more to global developments than to domestic politics.

“Icelanders’ views on EU membership have always swung back and forth,” political scientist Eiríkur Bergmann told Arctic Today. “Sometimes there’s strong interest, other times not at all. But right now, things are changing fairly quickly.”

A major factor behind this evolving sentiment is a growing unease about Iceland’s place in the world as the geopolitical landscape becomes more unpredictable. Although economic and regulatory concerns have dominated EU discussions in the past, security concerns are increasingly playing a role.

Bergmann claims U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated claims about taking over Greenland are causing deep-lying anxiety about his intentions for the North Atlantic.

“That’s part of the broader uncertainty in Iceland’s security environment,” he said. “Some people quietly worry that if attention can turn to Greenland, he might set his sights on Iceland as well.”

That unease ties into broader questions about Iceland’s defense arrangements. Since 1951, Iceland has relied on a bilateral agreement with the United States to guarantee its security, given that the country has no standing military. But Bergmann warns that Icelanders can no longer count on the U.S. to ensure its security.

“As things stand, that agreement isn’t worth the paper it’s written on,” he said. “Its strength depends on the U.S. president at any given time. If it suits American interests, it will be honored — if not, it won’t.”

This perception—that traditional guarantees may no longer be reliable—is leading some Icelanders to think more seriously about aligning with the European Union. Bergmann notes that while support for NATO remains strong in Iceland, people are starting to weigh what other alliances might offer greater long-term stability.

There’s also a regional angle to consider. If Iceland were to move toward EU membership, it could influence the conversation in Norway, which, like Iceland, is part of the European Economic Area but not a member of the EU.

“That kind of move could absolutely affect debate in Norway,” Bergmann said. “The discussion is gaining momentum there as well.”

Two of the three coalition government parties, the Social Democratic Alliance (Samfylkingin) and the Reform Party (Viðreisn) are pro-EU membership and according to the coalition’s platform, a national referendum on resuming EU accession talks is expected before the end of the current term in 2028. Bergmann said that while no firm plans have been announced, it’s possible that external developments could push the timeline forward.

“There is definitely a shift underway,” he said. “How far it goes will depend on what happens over the next few years.”