More Nordic cooperation needed to face a more aggressive Russia
The security situation in the Nordics has underscored the growing need for deeper cooperation between the Nordic countries, especially in light of Russia’s increasingly aggressive actions. While Finland and Sweden’s recent NATO membership has strengthened the region’s defense, experts believe that further integration and collaboration among Nordic nations is essential for ensuring long-term security. The topic is one of many key issues to be discussed at the upcoming Arctic Security Conference – “Linking the North American and European Arctics,” which will take place in Oslo, Norway on September 12 – 13.
According to Andreas Østhagen, a senior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute and Iselin Németh Winther, a junior researcher at the same institute, who are the among the conference’s organizers, the real change in the region’s security landscape started with Russia’s growing unpredictability.
“The security situation didn’t change with Finland and Sweden joining NATO. It changed with Russia increasingly being an untrustworthy and aggressive actor in the Arctic and in a Nordic context,” Østhagen explained.
Finland and Sweden’s decision to join NATO in 2023, was in response to this evolving threat environment. However, their membership hasn’t dramatically altered the overall security landscape, which had already been shaped by Russia’s behavior.
“Russia is the actor that we are all trying to manage, that we’re all fearing,” Østhagen said, noting that the region’s defense strategies have long been focused on containing the Russian threat.
In response to this, the Nordics are expected to deepen their defense cooperation, both within NATO and through regional frameworks like NORDEFCO. While full military integration may not happen soon, Østhagen believes that closer collaboration is likely.
“The Nordic countries really should sit down and figure out where do we want to go from here,” Østhagen emphasized.
He highlighted that joint planning and shared operational frameworks between Finland, Sweden, and Norway are already being developed, but the potential for even deeper political and military collaboration remains an open question.
At the same time, concerns about hybrid threats, particularly in the Arctic, are growing. Iselin Németh Winther pointed out that the risk of unintended escalations in the region is very real, especially given recent incidents involving Russian provocations.
“You need to have the tools to de-escalate situations like that,” Winther said, referencing incidents like a recent shadowing of Norwegian research vessels by Russian ships and Russia’s ghost fleet of ships that operate without .
While an all-out conflict with Russia is seen as unlikely, hybrid warfare—such as cyberattacks or sabotage of critical infrastructure—poses a more significant risk to the region.
“I think hybrid warfare or escalations and provocations are more likely because it’s harder to point the finger at Russia for that kind of activity,” Winther added.
NATO’s renewed focus on the Arctic region, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has been beneficial to the Nordic countries, though it comes in response to a deteriorating security environment.
“It’s what we have been pushing for for a long time: to get more NATO attention, to get more U.S., British, French, and German attention to the Arctic or to the high north,” Østhagen said.
However, he cautioned that balancing the interests of larger NATO powers with those of smaller members, such as the Nordic countries, will be critical in maintaining a cautious and measured approach to Arctic security.
“The approach has always been cautious. It’s about finding the right balance between all these states,” Østhagen concluded.
As the region adapts to these new challenges, Nordic defense integration is expected to grow, with the two hoping that closer collaboration will provide an alternative to reliance solely on NATO or larger global powers like the U.S. and EU.
