Opinion: Arctic Security Conference–an escalating dialog about a rapidly changing region

On September 12-13, a new initiative will take place in Oslo, Norway: the Arctic Security Conference – “Linking the North American and European Arctics.” This conference is yet another addition to the growing number of gatherings dedicated to Arctic issues that have emerged over the past decades. Despite the numerous conferences already in existence, we believe this new event provides significant added value for three key reasons.

First, among all the Arctic conferences, there is a noticeable lack of distinct focus on security and geopolitics. Most of the existing conferences have a broader scope, often addressing all things Arctic. While it is undeniable that the Arctic region faces several highly significant issues – including climate change, local community development, and business attraction – all of which are crucial to address and resolve, we believe that by focusing specifically on a single issue – security – we can facilitate a more in-depth and meaningful discussion about the underlying drivers and logic shaping the Arctic.

Thus, the Arctic Security Conference 2024 aims to provide a platform where the world’s leading experts in Arctic security can exchange and discuss updated findings and trends regarding the security policy situation in the North. Although the conference is primarily research-driven, featuring scholars from Canada, Denmark, India, Iceland, Finland, France, China, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States, it also includes prominent representatives from politics, the military, and civil society. Among the speakers are Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, State Secretary Anne Marie Aanerud from the Norwegian Ministry of Defense, the Finnish State Secretary responsible for both foreign and defense policy, the Chief of the U.S. Coast Guard in Alaska, and the Chief of Canadian Forces in the Arctic. Additionally, participants include representatives from various Indigenous organizations, NATO, national defense agencies, the EU, and numerous journalists from Norway and international media.

Second, the focus on security is particularly timely. Arctic security relations are becoming increasingly tense after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the European Arctic, deterrence has largely replaced the long-standing tradition of dialogue and cooperation, leading to heightened military activity, as well as cases of sabotage and provocation. The Nordic Arctic states now face a more hostile, unpredictable, and risk-prone neighboring country. Events like the pursuit of the Norwegian research vessel “Kronprins Haakon” by a Russian ship in the Fram Strait and the damage to the telecommunication cables to Svalbard, likely involving Russian fishing vessels, illustrate more aggressive behavior from Russia than witnessed a decade ago.

Heightened activity is also evident across the Atlantic, with an increased Russian presence in North American airspace and a growing number of Chinese vessels in the region’s waters. As recently as June, the U.S. Coast Guard encountered three Chinese military ships within the United States’ Exclusive Economic Zone in the Bering Sea. In August, four Russian and Chinese bombers conducted – for the first time – a joint flight in international airspace off the coast of Alaska.

Third, amidst these developments, the debate about the geopolitical dynamics in the Arctic is sometimes characterized by simplistic claims and misconceptions. One of these misconceptions – addressed by the conference, as reflected in its subtitle: “Linking the North American and European Arctics” – is the tendency to describe the security dynamics across the entire circumpolar region as being the same. However, significant differences in the security challenges across the Arctic are often overlooked or conflated.

These challenges are related to factors such as the geographical location of the Arctic states, the demographics of their northern areas, and geopolitical trends and events unfolding elsewhere in the world – to name a few. Thus, it is misguided to view the security dynamics across the entire Arctic as cohesive. Broadly speaking, for the European Arctic states, proximity to Russian borders is vital for their security assessments, and for Finland, Norway, and Sweden, it is fundamental to their national defense considerations. In North America, however, the northern regions play more of a strategic role, with the global rivalry between the US and China also influencing strategic considerations.

With increased tension and rapidly shifting security dynamics, there is an urgent need for a research-driven and nuanced exchange of perspectives on the mechanisms contributing to and mitigating conflict in the Arctic. Furthermore, to achieve a holistic understanding of Arctic security challenges, it is essential to distinguish between and highlight the distinct logics linked to the different sub-regions of the Arctic. The Arctic Security Conference aims to shed light on these issues.

Andreas Østhagen is a senior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, and Iselin Németh Winther is a junior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute.