Distracted nations can lose sight of ocean goals: Commentary

2025 will be a crucial year for ocean policy, with France and Costa Rica set to host the next UN Oceans Conference in Nice in June. However, key governments that would normally be expected to be the engine for ocean conservation efforts are going through difficult times. As a result, ambitions for progress on ocean matters may not be achieved.

The conference is concerned with the state of the world’s ocean, including the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Ocean is under increasing stress through acidification, changes in fish stocks due to climate change, increasing plastic pollution impacts, and more—all issues that will gain their share of attention.

This type of conference was last held in 2022, and it is the largest of its kind. Other similar gatherings occur annually—such as the Our Ocean Conference, held last year in Athens and planned for Busan in the first half of 2025—but the UN conference is the biggest, most well-attended one, offering a chance to take stock and energize world efforts. The ocean is vital for human well-being and is globally subject to considerable environmental pressures, with effects from pollution and overfishing, acidification and biodiversity loss, and potential impacts from oil drilling and, in the future, deep seabed mining. The international community is increasingly aware of the need to study and protect the ocean (it has been said that we know more about the surface of the moon than the surface of the sea floor).

As a practical matter, while almost all countries rely on the ocean for shipping, food, and more, the richest countries need to take the lead in ocean conservation. They are the ones who can afford the science that goes into understanding the marine environment or regulate the industries that have impacts there. Yet, many of those countries are facing political and financial limitations that can take their focus away from international cooperation in this sphere.

France, one of the UN ocean conference hosts, is going through a difficult period of divided government and has appointed its fourth prime minister in recent months with no resolution of its precarious internal politics in sight. Germany’s government has entered caretaker mode with elections not expected until early this year; its coalition government cannot currently advance major new policies. Britain’s Labour government, having recently kicked out conservatives after 14 years with a strong majority, is already suffering from low approval ratings and is facing serious budgetary shortfalls. Canada’s prime minister has addressed his weakened political position by indicating that he will resign, and thus Canada will have a new government this year.

All of these countries would be expected to strongly support marine conservation efforts, but do they have the money, political will, and bandwidth to do so?

Even in Asia, we see troubling signs. South Korea, a country with an increasing marine environment profile, has impeached its president and may have an unelected leader for months. The coalition led by Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has lost its majority in parliament, its worst result in over a decade, and may shift its focus to internal matters.

The United States offers a different scenario. It is returning Donald Trump to office with an administration that will deemphasize multilateral environmental cooperation and avoid reliance on international institutions. With the U.S. (again) leaving the Paris Agreement on climate, its involvement in ocean environment issues is likely to decline along with its role in climate diplomacy. It seems unlikely that the U.S. will ratify the UN’s new treaty on high seas biodiversity, which it signed under the Biden Administration.

Thus, most of the G7 countries that would normally roll up their sleeves and grapple with marine issues may have other policy priorities—even if they show up at the conference in Nice with usual positions to support science, reduce pollution, end illegal fishing and overfishing, etc.

How about Norway and the Nordics? They have an opportunity to have a real impact, especially when it comes to policies affecting the Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic. Norway’s leadership role, however, despite having founded a group of leaders to focus on ocean issues, may be hampered by its position showing openness to deep seabed mining, which has been unpopular with some countries and with the NGO community.

China and India may take on increasing roles in ocean policy but are unlikely to take up the slack of the U.S., Europeans, Japan, and South Korea. Russia is focused on its war in Ukraine and hasn’t traditionally led on oceans issues.

The EU may try to carry the banner of marine conservation, but how far can it go without the full commitment of France and Germany?

Ocean issues have taken center stage in recent years as the world has come to understand the vital role that the ocean plays in natural systems that protect us from climate change, biodiversity, food security, and maritime commerce. Most countries have signed on to a goal of protecting 30 percent of the ocean by 2030. Nations are far behind in attaining that objective—today only about 8% is protected, and only 2% is under strong protection. To address these huge challenges, states need to fund marine science, create monitoring regimes to ensure implementation of marine protected areas, limit plastic discharge into the ocean, and ensure that developing countries have the resources and technology to participate in a worldwide effort. States must also summon the political will to regulate stakeholders.

With so many leading states and their leaders distracted by political and budgetary troubles, can they still find the will and resources to do what is needed for the ocean? We can hope so, but it is becoming harder to predict a fundamental advance in ocean conservation coming out of the Nice conference.

Evan T. Bloom is a lawyer and former senior U.S. diplomat with extensive expertise in ocean and polar affairs. He served as Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and Fisheries and Director of the Office of Ocean and Polar Affairs. Currently, he is Senior Advisor to the Centre for the Ocean and the Arctic (Norway), Global Fellow at the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute, Polar Governance Chair at the Ted Stevens Center, and an adjunct professor at the University of Tasmania. Bloom played a key role in establishing the Arctic Council, co-chaired key international agreements, and led U.S. delegations to major UN and maritime negotiations. He is a Fellow of the Explorers Club and a Member of the Council on Foreign Relations.