Will new submarines honour Canada’s NATO commitment to increase its defence spending?

Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair announced at this month’s NATO summit that Canada plans to buy as many as 12 conventionally powered submarines. This move reflects the country’s historical pattern of only increasing military spending under crisis or external pressure, Paul T. Mitchell writes in The Conversation.

• Despite a recent Defence Policy Update focusing on Arctic defense, Canada has faced criticism for weak defense spending and failing to meet NATO’s 2% GDP commitment. The timing of the announcement raises suspicions of it being a superficial response, rather than a strategic policy shift.
• Historically, Canada has played a supporting role in warfare, prioritizing participation over strategic impact. The submarine announcement seems more about reassuring allies and potential local economic benefits than genuine defense interest, given the government’s minimal investment in complex weapon systems.
• Canada’s previous experience with Victoria-class submarines highlights issues with proper investment and support, resulting in operational failures. With only five qualified submarine commanders and logistical challenges in Arctic operations, the new submarines risk becoming ineffective without substantial infrastructure and personnel investments, continuing Canada’s pattern of inadequate defense planning.